In the Ukraine war, the Crimean Peninsula, already occupied and annexed by Russia since 2014, comes into focus. After the Ukrainian drone campaign in the medium-range sector over the past months had primarily worn down Russian air defense facilities in this area and subsequently targeted the enemy’s supply routes across the mainland, even individual petrol stations have recently been the target of such attacks. Since the bridge built by Russia after the annexation across the Kerch Strait has long been closed to heavy transports for safety reasons, a recent hit on the ferry operating in parallel effectively cut this connection almost completely.
In addition to Russia-wide fuel supply difficulties caused by the strategic warfare against the country’s oil industry, this has exacerbated the local situation on Crimea to such an extent that on June 21 civilian gasoline sales were banned there and Governor Sergei Aksyonov last Friday declared a state of emergency. The power supply also suffers from outages, leading to widespread restrictions in public life. Travel offers to the popular holiday destination have been canceled in many instances, while holidaymakers and residents try to leave the peninsula.
Pressure on Crimea, but no invasion troops expected for the foreseeable future
There are conflicting reports about the situation on the Kinburn spit in the northwest of Crimea near the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, which in the past repeatedly served as the target of publicly visible but ultimately unsuccessful small landing operations by Ukraine. The latter has now stated that these were evacuated by Russian troops due to the untenable position. Russian sources contradicted this. Ukraine’s medium-term aim is likely to make the ongoing occupation of Crimea by Russia untenable. However, at present there are no Ukrainian troops available to actually clear the peninsula from the occupiers and bring it under control.
Beyond Crimea, Ukraine’s strategic attacks are increasingly leading to gasoline shortages, according to Russian sources partly due to prioritizing supply to the Moscow metropolitan area and panic buying elsewhere. Russia recently responded with drone attacks on Ukrainian gas stations. Meanwhile, the front continues to show a general sense of uncertainty about the clear control of areas in the ground combat zone, with Russian troops under pressure due to supply difficulties in the southwest, while they gain terrain as their supply lines are shortened.
Control of terrain in the Ukraine war remains largely unclear
Thus they lost further sections on the eastern edge of the former Kakhovka Reservoir, while the situation at the border between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts remains particularly unclear due to battles conducted mainly with drones and relatively small manpower. Here Russia reported two advances west of Hulyaipole with the capture of several villages, as well as one to the north toward Pokrovske. This was not confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The depiction of the area of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring in southern Dnipropetrovsk is very divergent.
Here Ukrainian sources continue to report a contiguous territory under their own control, while Russian sources report only isolated contested sections. This is likely due to the largely “inactive” nature of the front, where dispersed positions, supplied largely by unmanned systems, in drone-dominated spaces allow broad interpretations of “control.” Both sides frequently back this up with drone footage of individual soldiers holding their national flags to the cameras.
This also holds for the broader front. In the long-contested fortress city of Kostyantynivka, Russia reports a growing advance of its troops in the urban area and further successes toward Sloviansk as well as Sumy. Along the border with Belarus, Ukraine apparently achieved the shutdown of relay stations for Russian drones by threatening attacks, after having exerted pressure on the Minsk government for its support of Russia over a long period and having moved troops into the border area.
